A perfect beat record drifted down. A two-of-eight record drifted up.

How to read itBeat rate is the scorecard. Average five-day post-earnings drift is what actually happened to holders afterward. Grouped by drift pattern, not by sector.

Every figure is an average over eight historical quarters, drawn from live post-earnings distributions via the GammaQC engine. An average is a description of the past, not a forecast.

Transmission chainInflation print → front-end yields → duration → multiple. A hot print lifts the implied policy path, raises the discount rate applied to cash flows dated years out, and compresses long-duration multiples hardest; a cool one relieves it. The structural point: a hawkish path does not need to produce a selloff to matter — it caps multiple expansion. Minutes work through the same chain without new data, by revising how the market reads the committee's reaction function. A record that shows broad support for further increases lifts the implied path; a record that shows reluctance about further moves lowers it.

The regimeFOMC, Sep 15–16: the committee voted 12–0 to raise the federal funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00%, the first increase since 2023, as reported in this Ledger's Sep 20 edition. This is the third earnings week priced under that path.

[CNBC, Sep 16 2026; Fox Business, Sep 16 2026 — as cited in the Sep 20 Weekly Ledger; Federal Reserve Board FOMC calendar]

What is scheduledMon Oct 5: ISM Services PMI (September), 10:00a ET. Tue Oct 6: Vice Chair Michelle W. Bowman speaks on "Modernizing Regulation and Supervision," 10:45a ET. Wed Oct 7: minutes of the Sep 15–16 FOMC meeting, 2:00p ET. Thu Oct 8: Governor Christopher J. Waller delivers remarks on the economic outlook. One structural note for next week: Columbus Day falls on Monday Oct 12, and the Federal Reserve Board's calendar moves statistical releases from that day to Oct 13.

[Federal Reserve Board, "October 2026" events calendar; Institute for Supply Management, Report On Business release calendar; Thrive in Markets, week-of-Oct-5 calendar preview]

What is NOT scheduledNo CPI and no FOMC decision this week. September CPI is due Wednesday Oct 14 at 8:30a ET, the same afternoon as the Beige Book (2:00p ET). The next decision follows the Oct 27–28 meeting, with the statement and press conference on Wednesday Oct 28 (press conference 2:30p ET). This week the front end gets the committee's own account of September and one services survey, not a new inflation print. That gap is worth noting in its own right.

[U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI release schedule, via eco3min and FedRateCalc; Federal Reserve Board, "October 2026" events calendar]

Disciplinea scheduled event is a fact to report. The market's reaction to it is not knowable in advance, and nothing in this section is a view on how any release, minutes or speech resolves.

Magnitude does not order driftStart with the honest case. AEHR carries the largest average surprise on the board at +266.1% and the largest drift at +20.72%, so at the very top the ranks line up. One step down, they stop lining up. HELE carries the second-largest average surprise at +93.4% and drifts −0.14%, ninth of twelve. APLD carries the worst average surprise at −104.7% and has the second-largest drift at +17.47%. The surprise ranked 2nd lands 9th on drift, and the surprise ranked 12th lands 2nd. The mid-range shows the same thing: LW averages a +15.8% surprise and drifts +4.58%, while LEVI averages a larger +19.5% and drifts −0.77%.

The thesisBeat rate and post-print direction are approximately uncorrelated in this cohort. Five names beat in at least seven of their last eight quarters — LEVI, PEP, DAL, LW and PENG — and their average drifts are −0.77%, +1.87%, +1.00%, +4.58% and +6.58%. The same scorecard lands in all three drift groups, and the only perfect eight-of-eight record on the board sits in the negative one. "They all beat" tells you nothing about the move. The scorecard measures the company against the published Street number. The drift measures how much of that was already in the price before the number arrived.

Model versus StreetThe published Street numbers run from STZ at 3.55, PEP at 2.30 and RPM at 1.95 down to AEHR at 0.11 and APLD at −0.30. The engine's own estimate field returned empty for all twelve names, so no model-versus-Street divergence is published this week. The desk will not invent one.

The structureImplied volatility is bid into a print because the event date is known and the outcome is not. Once the number is public, the uncertainty that justified the premium is resolved and implied volatility collapses toward realized. That collapse is mechanical and scheduled, and whoever holds the premium across the event pays for it. A directionally correct option can still lose money through the print: the payoff has to clear both the move and the crush.

Realized versus impliedThe question is never "will it move." It is whether the realized move exceeds what the pre-print premium already charged. This week's board splits in two. Eight of the twelve names average five-day moves inside a −5.42% to +4.58% band, and the four outside it are WS at −9.30%, PENG at +6.58%, APLD at +17.47% and AEHR at +20.72%. The two widest are smaller, high-dispersion names, and pre-print premium on names like that is typically priced to match. Either way, the measurable structure in this data sits in the post-print drift — the multi-day path after the uncertainty is resolved and the crush has already happened — not in the pre-print premium.

Risk vetoevery figure in the table is an average over eight observations. Eight is a small sample, the table carries no dispersion measure, and a mean says nothing about how wide the distribution around it is. AEHR's +20.72% and APLD's +17.47% averages could each be driven largely by one or two outsized quarters, and the averages alone cannot tell you whether they were. A distribution is not a forecast, an average is not a prediction, and none of this is a probability that any specific future quarter behaves like the mean.

Thread 1 — Energy: crude back above $100The live sentiment feed is dense and dated. 24/7 Wall St., Oct 2 2026 — "Brent Oil Is Back Above $100 as a Third Aircraft Carrier Heads to the Middle East." Seeking Alpha, Oct 3 2026 — "ExxonMobil: Set For Record Highs As War Profits Boom." The Motley Fool, Oct 4 2026, reports that the President is "very seriously" considering curbs on diesel exports.

[24/7 Wall St., Oct 2 2026; Seeking Alpha, Oct 3 2026; The Motley Fool, Oct 4 2026 — via the GammaQC live sentiment feed for XOM/CVX]

Read — now / laterNear term, and specific: DAL reports Friday before the open, and jet fuel is one of the largest cost lines an airline carries. The guidance on that print is written with Brent above $100. PEP (Thu, before the open), LW (Tue, before the open) and STZ (Tue, after the close) all move heavy product by truck, so diesel sits directly in their distribution costs. Any curb on diesel exports would bear on domestic diesel supply, which is why that report matters to these names and not only to refiners. Structurally: sustained triple-digit crude feeds headline inflation, then breakevens, then the discount rate, and the committee has already shown it will act on that chain. Any further escalation would tend to push it in the same direction; any durable de-escalation would tend to relieve it.

Thread 2 — Trade: metals duties and the pharma deadlineAs of Sep 23, 2026, Section 232 duties stood at 50% on steel and aluminum articles, with further Section 232 duties on vehicles and parts, trucks, wood products, some semiconductors, patented drugs and drones (Dimerco, US Tariff Update 2026). The 100% Section 232 tariff on patented pharmaceuticals and their ingredients, imposed by Proclamation 11020 on Apr 2, took effect for large companies on Jul 31. It extended to the remaining, smaller companies on Tuesday Sep 29, the week just ended. Companies with HHS pricing agreements and Commerce onshoring agreements can qualify for a 0% rate through Jan 20, 2029 (Covington; GHY).

[Dimerco, "US Tariff Update 2026"; Covington & Burling, "Trump Administration Announces Section 232 Tariffs on Patented Pharmaceuticals and Ingredients," Apr 2026; GHY International, "U.S. Imposes 100% Section 232 Tariffs on Patented Pharmaceuticals and Ingredients"]

Read — now / laterNear term, and specific: three Tuesday reporters sit inside the metals regime. WS (after the close) processes steel. APOG (before the open) builds architectural glass and aluminum framing systems. STZ (after the close) packages much of its beer in aluminum cans. In all three, a 50% duty on the input is a cost line management has to address in guidance. LEVI (Wed, after the close) is a global apparel sourcer reporting under the broader import-duty regime. No marquee reporter this week is a pharmaceutical name, so the Sep 29 deadline bears on the tape through sector read-through rather than a print. Structurally: duties act on input cost and on volume at once. Guidance reflects a schedule change quarters before reported margins finish absorbing it.

Thread 3 — Defense & rearmamentThe Navy awarded RTX's Raytheon a $24.4 billion multi-year contract for Standard Missile-6 interceptors, amid stockpile concerns (Reuters and The Wall Street Journal, Oct 1 2026). A day later Barron's ran "Billion-Dollar Contract, Zero Rally: Why RTX Stock Is Stuck" (Oct 2 2026). 24/7 Wall St. ran "Lockheed Martin Keeps Raising Its Dividend as Pentagon Money Keeps Flowing" (Oct 3 2026). The Barron's headline is the drift thesis in another sector: a large, public, positive fact that the price had already absorbed. No marquee reporter this week is a defense prime. Structurally: rearmament is a multi-year budget variable, and procurement turns into revenue on a lag measured in years.

[Reuters, Oct 1 2026; The Wall Street Journal, Oct 1 2026; PR Newswire (RTX), Oct 1 2026; Barron's, Oct 2 2026; 24/7 Wall St., Oct 3 2026 — via the GammaQC live sentiment feed for LMT/RTX]

Thread 4 — AI infrastructure leadershipPR Newswire, Oct 3 2026 — "Nasdaq Hits Fresh Ground on Chip and Software Strength as Dow, Small Caps Lag for the Week." Zacks, Oct 2 2026 — "AI and Oil Shape Market Leadership in the First Nine Months of 2026." Near term, and specific: three of this week's reporters sit directly in that buildout. AEHR (Mon, after the close) makes semiconductor test and burn-in equipment, PENG (Tue, after the close) sells AI and high-performance computing infrastructure, and APLD (Wed, after the close) builds and operates data centers. They are also the three widest drift-up names on the board. Structurally: a market whose leadership comes from long-duration, capex-heavy names is the most sensitive to the discount-rate chain in Lens 1. Minutes released the same afternoon as APLD's print are where that chain and this thread meet.

[PR Newswire, Oct 3 2026; Zacks, Oct 2 2026 — via the GammaQC live sentiment feed]

Neutrality noteevery item in this section is reported as a dated, attributed fact with business and market relevance only. Nothing here is offered as political or partisan commentary, and every forward-looking clause is conditional by construction.

Pre-printThe event date is known, so the exposure decision is a sizing decision, not a timing one. Size for convexity: with a known date and an unknown outcome, the loss can be bounded and defined in advance. Write down the invalidation level before the release. A level chosen after the number is public is a rationalization, not an invalidation level, and that distinction is the entire discipline. This week the discipline has a second clock. LEVI and APLD print after Wednesday's close, two hours after the minutes are released, so the tape they report into may not be the tape of that morning.

Post-print — the liquidity-trap signatureThis is a structural observation, not an instruction. The pattern has three parts that appear together: a company beats cleanly on the published number, the stock gaps green on the opening print, and Day-1 institutional drift volume runs negative, meaning size is being distributed into the gap rather than accumulated through it. When all three co-occur, the beat is functioning as exit liquidity: the good number supplies the bid that lets existing size leave. The tell is a gap and a volume flow pointing in opposite directions, which you can see in the tape but not in the headline.

Which names fit the archetype profileOn record alone, LEVI is the cleanest archetype on this board. It has eight beats in eight quarters, a +19.5% average surprise, and an average five-day drift of −0.77%: an unbroken scorecard that has historically bought a slightly negative path. APOG is the stronger version, with six of eight beats and a +9.5% average surprise converting into −5.42% of drift. WS does not fit the archetype. With four of eight beats and a −16.0% average surprise, its −9.30% drift is a miss-and-follow pattern, not a sold beat. HELE fits a different profile: a +93.4% average surprise producing −0.14%, which is the priced-in signature rather than the distribution one. This describes eight historical quarters per name. It is not a claim about what any of them will do this week.

The standing vetobeat rate does not imply direction. Five names on this board carry a seven-of-eight-or-better record and land in all three drift groups, and the one perfect record sits in the negative group. If your entire reason for holding something through a print is "they always beat," you do not have a thesis. You have a statistic that this week's table shows carries no direction.